人民币汇率重回7.0时代
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="margin-bottom: 0px; max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px; padding: 16px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; border: 1px solid #1972cb;"><p style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: #1972cb; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;">CFIC导读</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-size: 14px; color: #1972cb; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;">◆</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">近期海外美元偏弱表现和出口商结汇需求释放是人民币汇率显著升值的两个重要原因。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">随着美联储降息的到来和逆周期政策发力的概率增加，人民币汇率或仍有一定升值空间。</span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px; max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">8月收官，人民币兑美元汇率反弹近2%，创2024年以来最大单月涨幅，收复年内所有失地。具体数据显示，在岸人民币兑美元累计上涨1380个基点报7.0881，离岸人民币兑美元上涨1370点报7.0900，人民币对美元中间价调升222个基点报7.1124。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">业内专家表示，近期海外美元偏弱表现和出口商结汇需求释放是人民币汇率显著升值的两个重要原因。随着美联储降息的到来和逆周期政策发力的概率增加，人民币汇率或仍有一定升值空间。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; text-align: center; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;"><strong style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;">年内最大单月涨幅</strong></span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">8月，美联储开始将焦点从通胀转至就业，市场对美联储的降息预期达到了年内最高水平，美元指数创九个月最大月跌幅；人民币兑美元反弹近2%，创2024年人民币汇率的最大单月涨幅。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">8月5日，经济衰退担忧主导全球市场，恐慌情绪引爆“黑色星期一”：美元创七个月盘中最低，日元兑美元一度涨3.3%，升破142；离岸人民币兑美元涨至一年多高点7.0819。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">8月6日-25日，人民币汇率呈现宽幅震荡。8月29日起，人民币对美元中间价仅小幅走强，而境内外交易价突然再度发力，双双升破7.10进入7.0时代。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">8月30日，人民币对美元中间价升值至2024年6月7日以来最高7.1124，全月反弹0.3%，前8个月累计跌幅收窄至0.4%，收复近一半失地；在岸人民币兑美元即期汇率全月反弹1.9%，前8个月由最多下跌2.5%转为累计升值0.1%；离岸人民币兑美元全月反弹1.9%，前8个月由最多下跌2.5%转为累计升值0.5%。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">民生银行首席经济学家温彬称，近期人民币汇率反弹的支撑因素包括美国通胀回落与美联储降息预期，缓解非美货币压力；日元利差交易反向平仓，日元强势拉升带动亚洲货币整体回升；我国稳增长政策发力等，市场的交易逻辑正在重返基本面；市场出现逢低结汇的现象，企业结汇意愿增强等。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">中金外汇认为，美元指数及美债收益率均有进一步走低，外部环境改善依然是推动人民币汇率升值的主因，不过8月末以来，结汇力量或有增强，汇率出现进一步升值。具体来看，人民币汇率在月初经历了较为明显的升值，随后走势趋于震荡，并在月末美元走强的背景下继续录得一定升值。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛指出，8月份尤其是当月最后两个交易日，即期汇率相对当日中间价连续偏强、离岸人民币相对在岸人民币总体偏强，结汇盘进一步松动态势更加明显。预计全月结售汇或结束连续13个月的逆差，重新转为顺差。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin-bottom: 0.5em; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 2em; border: 0px initial initial;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; list-style: none; display: block; border: 0px initial initial;" title="479f6151f12f42068e0fbff7cc5823ba.png" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FmOUZfvX3DPLHtFpXDDP-H7EN32v" /></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; text-align: center; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;"><strong style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;">升值预期升温</strong></span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">市场普遍认为，未来几个月，外部因素可能仍是人民币汇率变化的主要驱动因素。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">中金外汇认为，人民币汇率压力整体或维持在较低水平，随着美联储降息的来到和逆周期政策发力的概率增加，或仍有一定升值空间。首先，美联储在9月或大概率下调政策利率，并进一步描述未来的降息前景，这有助于人民币汇率的外部压力保持在相对较低的水平。其次，由于7、8月经济增速偏缓，为保持经济回升向好的整体态势，逆周期政策进一步发力的可能性或有所增加。最后，在内外部因素共振之下，出口商或有较强的结汇需求，这可能对人民币的供需起到改善的作用。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">中国银行研究院高级研究员王有鑫认为，美国经济下行压力将持续加大，美股进入调整期，美联储政策宽松幅度可能超过此前预期，美元指数和美债收益率将继续回落，9月份美联储议息会议后中美利差倒挂趋势将明显改善，人民币面临的外部压力将持续缓解。同时，全球政治经济局势的复杂性和金融市场的剧烈波动可能促使更多国际资本在全球寻求“避风港”，而人民币汇率具有较高的稳定性。中国经济内生增长动力持续增强，可以预见，当前及未来几个月人民币资产将受到更多关注。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">多名中、外资机构交易员和分析师预计，年内人民币仍有望走强，“结汇潮”尚未开启，错过了此前一轮高位结汇的出口商，有望利用后续机会进行结汇。不过，升值幅度仍将取决于经济基本面的改善程度。从近期的中间价看，人民银行也无意顺势推动人民币继续升值。</span></p><p style="outline: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 16px 0px; list-style: none; color: #666666; font-family: SourceHanSerifCN-Regular, Noto Sans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Nimbus Sans L, Arial, Liberation Sans, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Noto Sans CJK SC, Source Han Sans SC, Source Han Sans CN, Microsoft YaHei, Wenquanyi Micro Hei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei, ST Heiti, SimHei, WenQuanYi Zen Hei Sharp, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; letter-spacing: normal; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; text-indent: 0em; line-height: 1.5em; border: 0px initial initial;"><span style="font-size: 16px; color: #000000;">管涛指出，企业需要进一步强化汇率风险中性意识。由于现在人民币与美元的利率倒挂程度较深，这导致企业对前期人民币反弹反应钝化，也许不少企业想等到人民币升破7（相当于从年内低点升值4%）之后才扭转操作。不过，一旦人民币升破7，企业就可能会遭遇空头集中踩踏的局面。据传，近日人民币加速上涨，就有在美联储降息基本已成定局、美元指数快速下行的背景下，离岸市场上机构月末集中调仓的影响。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; color: #888888; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important;">来源：新华财经</span></p></section> <!----></div> 我日你个温的感觉又亏了。 是吗？挣钱又少了 加油！ 随便了
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