美元继续崩，人民币持续火爆，黄金再创新高
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 0.578px; visibility: visible;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; visibility: visible;"> </p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; visibility: visible;">随着美联储降息的脚步越来越近，本周美元指数延续近期走势，周一继续走低，这也带动黄金再度创出历史新高，人民币持续升值。9月降息板上钉钉下，全球各类资产有望沿着趋势越走越远。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center; visibility: visible;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;">// <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-wrap: wrap; visibility: visible;">美元跌，人民币、黄金涨</span></strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;"> //</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; visibility: visible;">9月16日，在美联储降息临近下，美元指数延续趋势，继续走低。Wind行情显示，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">周一美元指数低开低走，盘中多次直线跳水，并创近一周多新低，收盘报100.6625，离今年最低点100.5113已不远。</strong>截至北京时间<span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; visibility: visible;">9月</span><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; visibility: visible;">17日</span>5时许，周二开盘后虽有反弹，但再度冲高回落。本周美元有望沿着趋势继续稳步向下，大概率会跌破今年最低点，探出一年多新低。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; height: auto !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 350px !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fnt9B8E-N662Riwrr4hmaSdQWx_W" width="350px" /></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">美元走弱，黄金走强，两者跷跷板效应明显。Wind行情显示，9月16日，国际金价如期再度刷新历史新高。盘中COMEX黄金一度冲至2617.4美元，伦敦金现最高达2589.68美元，突破2600美元仅一步之遥。<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">今年以来两大品种累计涨幅分别高达25.98%和25.19%，成为亮丽的投资品种。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; height: auto !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 350px !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FppmBgr0U5kyfW7p79dXdH4q0Ztq" width="350px" /></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">人民币方面，中秋小长假，美元兑在岸人民币休市，但美元兑离岸人民币继续下跌。Wind行情显示，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">周一离岸人民币盘中突破7.1，离近一年多新高7.0709已不远。截至收盘，离岸人民币继续升值，报7.0969。</strong>周二开盘离岸人民币上涨继续，一旦美联储降息落地，美元持续走低，人民币震荡走高趋势有望持续，后期全球资产配置将有重大变化。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; height: auto !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 350px !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FkARwSH8G0iGdpNB7wW81D-38Sk0" width="350px" /></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;">// <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-wrap: wrap;">外资已持续加码人民币资产</span></strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;"> //</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">8月下旬，环球银行金融电信协会（Swift）发布的数据显示，今年7月份，人民币国际支付价值份额上升至4.74%，且创出有数据记录以来新高。市场人士认为，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">随着中美利差的缩小，人民币资产相对于美元资产的回报率优势逐渐显现。</strong>这不仅包括债券市场，还涉及其它人民币计价的金融资产。较高的回报率吸引了大量国际资本流入中国市场，进一步支撑了人民币的价值。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">据悉，债券息差交易主要是海外资本认为未来人民币潜在升值回报与短期债券持有到期回报率之和，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">有望超过同期美债收益率，令外资纷纷加仓境内1年期等短期国债与同业存单。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">国投证券分析师尹睿哲在报告中指出，在这轮债券息差交易浪潮里，海外资本的主要套利投资标的是同业存单。<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">去年11月以来，海外资本买入的同业存单规模累计达到约8000亿元，平均月底买入量为889亿元。</strong>截至7月底，海外资本持有的同业存单规模达到10909亿元，占比达到约6.16%。此外，彭博亚洲策略分析师赵志轩也表示，今年境外投资者明显加大对同业存单的购买力度，持仓所占份额升至7月底的6.15%，创下2015年以来的最高水平，略低于境外投资者对中国国债的持仓份额（7.16%）。 </p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;">// <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-wrap: wrap;">人民币升值对A股构成积极影响</span></strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;"> //</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">从历史数据来看，人民币升值对股市有积极利好作用。Wind数据统计显示，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">人民币近两次升值期间，A股多数行业表现不错。</strong>2020年5月29日至2022年3月1日升值期间，A股处于上升行情阶段，涨幅前五的行业整体上攻都超过30%，十分火爆。分别是材料、能源、工业、公用事业、日常消费，区间涨幅依次为89.4%、75%、52%、45.9%和32.9%。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">第二轮人民币2022年11月4日至2023年1月16日升值期间，大消费、金融和地产股领涨，涨幅排名前五的行业分别是日常消费、电信服务、金融、房地产和可选消费，涨幅分别达24.5%、20.8%、19.5%、17.9%、10.6%。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; height: auto !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 350px !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fv6tquCZxY9K03i3gNOKMnbRAc0M" width="350px" /></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; text-align: center;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;">// <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-wrap: wrap;">人民币进一步升值动力及影响</span></strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: center; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; color: #00879c; font-size: 20px; visibility: visible;"> //</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">天风证券研究所宏观首席研究员宋雪涛表示，当下人民币汇率存在进一步升值的可能性。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">从人民币升值的原因来看，美元走弱是主要推动因素。</strong>当下美元贬值的趋势仍未改变，美联储降息预期以及美股的波动性都可能加剧美元走弱。美股二季报调整或许只是开端，硅谷和华尔街已经产生分歧，矛盾或将加剧，并在下一个财报季引发更大波动。同时，政治的不确定性也正对美元指数形成挑战。美元指数面临压力，为人民币升值带来可能。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">人民币升值也和内部环境有关。</strong>要素市场化改革举措有助于降低经济转型过程中的长期风险，减轻人民币汇率短期失速的压力。此外，中国贸易顺差与结售汇顺差之间的巨大差额反映了“藏汇于民”的现象，这也是未来人民币升值的潜在驱动力。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">今年中国出口表现强劲，贸易顺差创下历史新高，但高额贸易顺差未反映在外汇储备上，这表明贸易企业为追求美元升值和较高美元存款利率，未及时结汇。麦格理集团估计，自2022年以来，中国出口商和跨国公司已经积累了超过5000亿美元的美元资产。一旦人民币升值预期增强，汇率触及关键点位如7时，企业为避免汇兑损失，可能将美元兑换成人民币，从而加速人民币升值。<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">人民币汇率有望突破7，甚至达到6.9 这一常见波动区间。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">从升值预期产生的影响来看，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">在货币政策方面，人民币升值后央行可能继续降息。</strong>此前央行已下调OMO(公开市场操作)、LPR(贷款市场报价)和MLF(中期借贷便利)利率，向市场传递明确信号。同时，央行或通过多种方式控制收益率曲线形态，为平稳降息创造条件。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: #ffffff; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; color: #00879c; visibility: visible;">在货币宽松的背景下，财政政策也将更加积极。</strong>过去货币政策和财政政策之间存在一定的不同步性，部分原因是汇率无法承受贬值压力。当汇率贬值压力消失后，央行可购买国债以增加市场流动性，财政也可加快发债节奏和政策落地。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; vertical-align: bottom; clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-family: PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: 0.544px; orphans: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">财政政策更加积极，一方面意味着将加快落地已承诺资金的使用，另一方面意味着将加大对制造业升级和新型基础设施的投资。同时，积极的财政政策还可通过中央加杠杆或准财政工具弥补财政缺口，为经济发展提供支持。</p><div style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">来源：澎湃号</div></section><p style="display: none;"> </p> <!----></div> 美元 人民币汇率 黄金 凡事都有利弊 升的太快也不好 过了12月份，你在看看吧 厉害了，，， 才降0.5而已 势头强劲 不就是一阵子涨一阵子跌吗？？？？ 有啥好火爆的？？？ 只不过老米又玩了个手段，别太乐观了！还没看清本质就蹦跶，让人笑话
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