哈里斯输给特朗普，冤吗？
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letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-size: 16px; opacity: 1; line-height: 0; visibility: visible;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; width: 40.6563px; height: auto; visibility: visible;"></section></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-size: 16px; opacity: 1; line-height: 0; visibility: visible;"></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; white-space: normal; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b;"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">当地时间11月6日，大选结果出炉后，美国副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在她的母校——位于华盛顿特区的霍华德大学公开表示：“我知道大家现在有各种各样的感受和经历，我完全理解。但我们必须接受这次选举的结果。”</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; white-space: normal; line-height: 1.75em;"></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; white-space: normal; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; font-size: 15px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">哈里斯强调，她输掉的是这场选举，“促使我参加这场选举的斗争，我没有输”。</span></strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;"></section><section style="margin-bottom: -30px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-size: 16px; display: flex; flex-flow: row; text-align: right; justify-content: flex-end; transform: translate3d(20px, 0px, 0px); visibility: visible;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; display: inline-block; width: 127.781px; vertical-align: top; flex: 0 0 auto; align-self: flex-start; height: auto; visibility: visible;"><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; width: 127.781px; height: 5px; background-color: #34496b; visibility: visible;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 15px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">当地时间11月6日，虽然内华达州和亚利桑那州的计票结果姗姗来迟，但随着摇摆州威斯康星州的10张选举人票归属共和党候选人、前总统特朗普，他的选举人票超过270张，作为第47任美国总统重返白宫成为定局。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 15px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">尽管选前最后一周的民调结果更有利于特朗普的对手、民主党候选人和现任副总统哈里斯，尽管亲共和党的声音选前强调选情将很胶着，特朗普即便获胜也是险胜，但事实上，特朗普在东部地区投票开始不到12小时即毫无悬念地早早锁定胜局。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 15px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">共和党以摧枯拉朽之势，夺</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">取了参院多数，并有望保住众院多数，加上早早确立的、共和党支持者在最高法院的优势，11月5日这一天，共和党赢得了历史性的权力优势。民主党则输掉太多——甚至20年来首次输掉了普选票（少了超过480万张）。这表明，多数美国选民的确不愿意选择民主党和哈里斯。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">那么，民主党和哈里斯究竟输在哪里？</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FuuSJf7W2TDR1yaJpLXoyLdYGlyO" /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px;">2024美国大选投票数据统计。（图/BBC）</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;"> </span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px; width: 645px !important; visibility: visible !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FsUY7jnzbIY8YrpuYb8kF97xRtBK" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; white-space: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #002fa7;"><strong><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: #34496b; text-decoration: none solid #002fa7;">通胀和移民两大问题</span></strong></span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">第一，选民对现状不满，而哈里斯选择了错误的应对。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">正如布鲁金斯学会高级研究员威廉·A.加尔斯顿等人所指出的，公众对民主党执政4年间在通胀和移民两大问题上的表现十分不满，对政府提供的“经济全面向好”数据无法感同身受，对贫富悬殊拉大和政府无所作为感到愤怒，对自己的现状和未来充满忧虑。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">特朗普和共和党像在2016年时那样，充分利用了公众这一情绪，赢得广泛共鸣（哪怕并没有解决良策，但作为在野者他们暂时无需为此负责）。相反，哈里斯及其团队在这些公众最关注、最焦虑的问题上含糊其辞，哈里斯也对自己身为副总统的责任百般回避。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">《今日美国报》评论员尼科拉·拉塞尔指出，哈里斯的话术一如《1984》中这句话——“我们的党希望你应该拒绝相信自己眼睛和耳朵所感知的一切，这是他们最后的、最重要的命令”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">“（他们）坚持认为，美国人对通货膨胀和经济的认识存在误解，尽管任何有头脑和有钱包的人都能看到，食品杂货的价格比以往任何时候都要高；他们一再表示，美国人移民和边境安全没有任何问题（直到竞选活动接近尾声），尽管美国人可以看到拜登政府执政期间边境遭遇移民数量创历史新高的统计数据。”</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">一言以蔽之，哈里斯及其搭档的言论，“很少反映美国人在经济、移民、边境和堕胎方面的经历，那么，为什么美国人会选出一个说他们亲身经历的问题都是捏造的人？哈里斯—沃尔兹如何解决他们所说的不存在的问题”？</span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px; width: 645px !important; visibility: visible !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FicckfNJI43rCQw8UStkwGBzwio6" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><strong><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-decoration: none solid #002fa7;">脱离社会和基层民生</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">第二，哈里斯和民主党团队“脱离群众且居高临下”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">大选结束后，和民主党核心党团闹翻的左翼政治家伯尼·桑德斯批评哈里斯和民主党团队“脱离社会和基层民生”，并指出：“当特朗普做出深入民间、关心底层疾苦的姿态时，哈里斯团队却沉醉于和文体明星们周旋；当‘铁锈地带’传统上支持民主党的工人阶层告诉哈里斯团队自己生活艰难，近4年政策需要改进时，哈里斯团队却告诉他们‘你们的感觉是错的，过去4年一切都很好’，教训他们应更关注诸如性别选择、堕胎权等‘进步’问题。”</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">他认为，“当你远离工人阶级，却奢望工人阶级继续用选票支持你，这是没有道理的”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FnS0rivfqVmeM6rjDkSgYj3MKy7M" /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">伯尼·桑德斯。（图/NBC News）</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;"> </span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px; width: 645px !important; visibility: visible !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FgNgNqLEJbUUlcTI-9_ckeJqlrut" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><strong style="outline: 0px; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); caret-color: transparent; color: #002fa7;"><span style="color: #34496b; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #002fa7; outline: 0px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px; text-decoration: none solid #002fa7;">“优先关心事项”</span></strong></span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">第三，哈里斯在选举冲刺阶段“失焦”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">哈里斯团队将族裔、性别、善待非法移民、堕胎自由等当作选举冲刺阶段的突破口，在这些领域倾注了大量资源，但效果事与愿违：ABC出口民调显示，民主党最后时刻在拉丁裔选民中支持率为53%，较4年前下降26个百分点。相反，特朗普获得了共和党候选人2004年以来在拉丁裔选民中最高的45%选票，其中男性支持率大幅拉升33个百分点。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">一些非正式统计显示，哈里斯押宝的波多黎各裔尽管对特朗普有诸多不满，却让民主党在波多黎各裔最集中的宾夕法尼亚州和佛罗里达州戴德县等选区一败涂地。在宾州，女性选民对哈里斯的支持率，较4年前对拜登的支持率下滑4个百分点；在“铁锈地带”，黑人、阿拉伯裔对哈里斯的拉票也无动于衷。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">一些女性选民表示，“女性首先是普通人，然后才是女性，我们也和其他人一样首先关注衣食住行和安全，而不是怀孕后能否随便堕胎。哈里斯的选择是对我们智商的不尊重”。一些阿拉伯裔选民则指出，在巴以问题上，民主党并未展现自己的政策和共和党有何不同，因此他们不会选民主党。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FlcHDw9cqsv_8FAMqOJexMEdZ8un" /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">哈里斯与女性选民们。（图/Facebook @Kamala Harris）</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">11月5日，ABC初步出口民调显示，在全国范围内，45%的受访者认为在现任政府治下生活变得更糟，这一数据甚至超过2008年金融危机时的数据（42%）；对国家发展方向持负面看法的比例高达72%；认为“美国民主受到威胁”的比例高达73%；认为自己经济状况比4年前更糟的比例高达45%（同样超过2008年的42%，更远远超过2020年的20%、2016年的28%）；</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">对现政府工作表现满意率低至41%，是2008年以来最低的；而在“战场州”，对上述现状不满的比例较平均值还要高。“选举中最关注问题”这一项，“民主状况”和“经济问题”分别以35%和31%高居第一、第二位，而民主党和哈里斯团队在最后关头煞费苦心选择的“优先事项”——堕胎权问题，关注度仅有可怜的14%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">尽管特朗普在上述“优先关心事项”上乏善可陈，但至少表现出“不回避”的态度，而哈里斯和民主党却在关键时刻给美国尤其“战场州”选民一种“非关民众之痛痒”的隔膜感。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">显然，哈里斯及民主党团队游离了选民最关注的话题，且自作聪明地告诉目标受众，“你们需要关心我要你们关心的话题”——而不是关心“你们究竟关心什么话题”。亲民主党的《卫报》高级编辑麦克·迈卡尼克认为，此举“大错而特错”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"> </p><section style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FrOVJ43tlrSxxXmVI06VrmgegWw7" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">哈里斯在社交平台写道：“我相信美国女性能为她们自己的身体做主。”（图/Facebook @Kamala Harris）</span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">一些分析家指出，哈里斯和特朗普都在关键取舍上选择了押宝式赌博。特朗普宁肯得罪阿拉伯裔和拉丁裔选民，也要支持以色列，并强调严厉对待非法移民，赌赢了。目标受众热烈共情，而被得罪的受众，却因民主党同样令他们失望，而并未大量把选票投给民主党。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">相反，选择在巴以问题上迁就以色列、在非法移民问题上批评特朗普的哈里斯赌输了。牺牲阿拉伯裔并未博得保守派白人和中间阶层的好感，而已获得合法公民权的拉丁裔并不像哈里斯他们预期的那样支持宽松对待新的非法移民，其他人群则对哈里斯更加不满。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">还有人指出，即便“民主状况”是美国选民最关注问题这一点民主党押宝正确，但策略选择却是错误的。他们拼命将特朗普塑造成一个“罪犯”，肆意贬低选择特朗普的选民，结果适得其反。正如一位匿名选民对《今日美国报》记者所言：“你凭什么告诉我，投给哈里斯的选票就是民主的，而投给特朗普的就是不民主的？难道民主不是我想投给谁就投给谁么？”</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">事实上，根据初步统计，在“铁锈地带”，年轻人这个传统上支持民主党的群体也大面积“翻红”。因为如今他们更担心自己找不到工作，而不是“该做男人还是女人”。传统上，高投票率有利于民主党，因为后者支持群体更年轻，而年轻人投票率较低；但今年很多地方出现了投票率升高却“翻红”的反常现象，折射出本届民主党政府“失焦”到了何等严重的地步。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FpvT0lZO5T-5m31qDQ09jd4JgBYN" /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">位于美国宾夕法尼亚州阿什利的Huber Breaker是北美最大的无烟煤碎煤机之一，建于1930年代，1970年代关闭。（图/维基百科）</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;"> </span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px; width: 645px !important; visibility: visible !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FiqaiJaTWFnHCDGZWzQKqt-0_N6N" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><strong style="outline: 0px; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); caret-color: transparent; color: #002fa7;"><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #34496b; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #002fa7; outline: 0px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-decoration: none solid #002fa7;"> 团结VS分裂</span></strong></span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">第四，共和党较以往任何时候都团结，而民主党却比任何时候都分裂。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">不论是2016年还是2020年，“半路出家”的特朗普都远未能凝聚党内各派系尤其是精英和专业人士的共识。他的竞选团队和胜选后内阁、西翼成员遴选困难，最终只能险胜或惜败。但时过境迁，共和党人空前团结，在野党党内候选人提名初选一反常态地早早收兵，寥寥无几的党内异议者或转变立场，或顾全大局偃旗息鼓，或迅速被边缘化甚至出局。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">初步统计显示，特朗普不仅在党内公开活动中获得一边倒的支持和上层“站队”，还赢得了高达94%的共和党支持者选票；民主党在独立人士中的支持率优势则从4年前的9%萎缩至5%。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">反观民主党，第一次总统辩论后，佩洛西和奥巴马夫妇联手逼宫，迫使拜登让位给哈里斯。此后，佩洛西和奥巴马夫妇所提出的竞选策略相差甚远，前者希望哈里斯早早与拜登现行政策切割，后者则希望哈里斯“多笑，少谈政策和细节”，尽量回避实质性问题。他们还因在巴以问题上的分歧，将有着深厚群众基础的桑德斯逼成了无党派参议员。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FvFRCbzS7N8UqwqV2fZgEU80JXDz" /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">哈里斯与美国前总统奥巴马。（图/Facebook @Kamala Harris）</span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">投票日当天，共和党内几乎所有重要人物都在为大选站台，而哈里斯身边簇拥的却多是文体名人和媒体“名嘴”，许多民主党内的“大腕”神奇“隐身”，直到败选大局已定，才现身强调“失败者的风度”。这无疑是不正常的。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">正如一些分析家所指出的，素来“大嘴易闯祸”的特朗普在远较前两次竞选时专业、成熟，荟萃共和党内精英的团队的辅佐下，大幅减少“乌龙”（有些看似“放炮”，实则是经过周密设计的拉票动作）；而哈里斯在莫衷一是的指点下被福克斯新闻主播逼问到语无伦次、顾左右而言他，“一切都已晚了”。</span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px; width: 645px !important; visibility: visible !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FvQNWzbDWcvalM1nWRMKwRLOGEM4" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><strong style="outline: 0px; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); caret-color: transparent; color: #002fa7;"><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #34496b; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #002fa7; outline: 0px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-decoration: none solid #002fa7;">“进步措施”</span></strong></span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">第五，公众对“政治正确”和“进步话题”的物极必反。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">许多观察家注意到，不仅是哈里斯和一些“进步派”民主党政要，有代表性的地方“进步派”也受到广泛冲击。如力推“警察问责制”“减少监狱人数”的加州湾区政客、哈里斯出生地奥克兰市市长盛桃及地方检察官帕梅拉·普莱斯，就在当地企业家、投资人和亚裔居民联手发起的罢免表决中被吞噬。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">《卫报》记者萨姆·莱文指出，这表明公众对民主党4年来津津乐道的某些“进步措施”的忍耐已达临界点，且他们的许多举措得罪了底层白人、亚裔等“非目标受众”，却未见得从拉丁裔、非洲裔等“目标受众”处得到期望中的回报（本次大选，这些群体的民主党支持率未见明显上升，甚至有所下降）。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">有观察家指出，上述两人的失败，和她们激烈反对由当地企业家支持的、旨在严厉处罚盗窃和毒品犯罪的加州“36号提案”有关。而出生在加州的哈里斯，却一而再、再而三地在被问及对该提案看法时顾左右而言他。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FgMYXhYx6xSKw4s9Gs4HVp-k9m-g" /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">打出“为自由而投票”标语的美国民众。（图/Facebook @Kamala Harris）</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;"> </span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px; width: 546px; visibility: visible !important; height: 107px;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FnYzwFff2PPNfjjRG5_vygW4Ky5N" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><strong style="outline: 0px; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); caret-color: transparent; color: #002fa7;"><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #34496b; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #002fa7; outline: 0px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-decoration: none solid #002fa7;">“提线木偶政治”</span></strong></span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">第六，公众对哈里斯能力信任度不够，并担心她“背后的操纵者”。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">一些分析家指出，尽管普遍亲民主党的传统媒体在过去几个月竭力塑造哈里斯“专业、精明”的人设，但她乏善可陈的政治履历和苍白的副总统表现是无法粉饰的。其团队为她量身定制的“多微笑少谈实务”策略意在藏拙，却无形中令她丧失了最后补救的机会。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">不仅如此，由于在逼宫、换马两件大事上佩洛西和奥巴马夫妇表现得过于明显、张扬，此后他们的身影又过于明显地站在哈里斯背后，这让不少民主党支持者感到不放心，唯恐出现“提线木偶政治”（何况操纵者还不止一人）。大选前不久，奥巴马在公开发言时称投票给哈里斯是“身为美国黑人的义务”，引发逆反效应，这实际上也是这种“唯恐选出个别人的代言人”情结的折射。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FtQcGza13hB3puPUemZWz5yTKTba" /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 10px;">2019年1月18日，哈里斯为米歇尔·奥巴马庆祝生日。（图/Facebook @KamalaHarris）</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;"> </span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="height: 107px; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px; width: 546px; visibility: visible !important;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fohb1_ltlOgvnEiQono1TIWTRVBK" /></section><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, system-ui, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; text-align: center; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><strong style="outline: 0px; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); caret-color: transparent; color: #002fa7;"><span style="font-size: 20px; color: #34496b; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #002fa7; outline: 0px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; color: #34496b; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-decoration: none solid #002fa7;">“战场州”之战</span></strong></span></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">第七，“战场州”判断大错特错。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">由于美国采取独特的“选举人团票”制，普选票的作用只是以州为单位，决定538张选举人票的归属。而除了内布拉斯加、缅因两个小州，其余各州均采取“赢家通吃”规则。由于近年来摇摆选民大幅减少，支持民主党的“蓝州”<span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 15px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">和支持共和党的“红州”殄域分明。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">大选前，有分析家预言，“蓝州票”计226张，“红州票”219张，仅相差7张；而宾夕法尼亚、乔治亚、北卡罗来纳、密歇根、亚利桑那、威斯康星、内华达这7个“可红可蓝”的“摇摆州”共计93张选举人团票，因此成为总统大选胜负的关键。而其中最为摇摆不定、选举人团票数在“摇摆州”中最多的宾夕法尼亚州（19张），则成为关键之关键。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FuEPU9OLZf90QR3aWssYIeNE_4Bm" /></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">2024年美国总统选举各州民意调查结果。其中，灰色区域为7个“摇摆州”。（图/维基百科）</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">结果也正是如此：“蓝州票”和“红州票”几乎无一例外，“各归各家”；七大“战场州”，除内华达、亚利桑那两州尚未出结果（特朗普明显领先），其余五州被特朗普横扫。甚至在参众两院改选议席选举中，共和党也在“战场州”势如破竹，这充分表明民主党在“战场州”的选举工作一败涂地，他们所迷信的选前民调则大错特错。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">一些民调专家，如英国民意调查公司JL Partners的詹姆斯·约翰逊、乔治城大学教授迈克尔·贝利和斯坦福大学的约翰·克罗斯尼克等指出，传统上民调沿用过时的电话采样，但如今很多人会把这类陌生电话视作“骚扰电话”而自动屏蔽，这迫使民调更多依赖街头随机取样。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fo6NzKY0yaqvIH3o5HK_Xs0quU2-" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="color: #34496b; letter-spacing: 1px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; color: #34496b; font-size: 10px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">截至11月8日的2024年美国总统选举结果地图，当时内华达州（粉红色区域）、亚利桑那州（灰色区域）尚未出最终结果。如今，特朗普拿下了这两个州。（图/维基百科</span></strong></span>）</p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">今年民主党外围组织投入了大量资源，填补民调街头义工的空白。这些人“有态度的取样”污染了数据——即便不考虑这个因素，更容易被街头游说乃至小赠品打动的受众中，年轻人和妇女比例也更高。而这两个人群中民主党支持率本就明显高于平均值。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">结果不言而喻：投票日前一天，普遍亲民主党的主流媒体还在渲染民调专家安·塞尔泽“哈里斯在爱荷华州反超3个百分点”的民调结果，并热议哈里斯可拿下4个甚至5个“战场州”，一天后他们输掉了其中5个（另两个估计也会输，但已不重要了），一切就此定局。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1px; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; font-size: 15px;">来源：新周刊</span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; white-space: normal; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); line-height: 1.75em;"></section><p style="display: none;"> </p> <!----></div> 又能怎么样，地球还是得打起来 喜欢打仗的犹太人……都会失去民心。 烧钱少了 不知道 不错。 不談論 吃瓜群众 看一看 不冤！
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