人民币，2023年来首次！
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: justify; font-size: 16px; color: #3e3e3e;"><section style="text-align: center; margin: 0px 0% 10px; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="empty_paragraph" style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; width: 95%; height: auto; box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px none #a0a0a0;"></section></section><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><section style="padding: 0px 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; color: #0a0a0b; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">1月3日下午，人民币对美元汇率于在岸和离岸市场双双走低。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">在岸人民币对美元自2023年以来首次跌破7.3，创2023年11月3日以来新低。本周在岸人民币对美元已累计跌约101个基点。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; width: 95%; height: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Flm7psTFGE4hw0LEw61JG6anfxiV" /></section></section><section style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center; line-height: 1.8; color: #a4a4a4; letter-spacing: 1px; padding: 0px 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">图 / WInd</span></p></section><section style="padding: 0px 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; color: #0a0a0b; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">人民币对美元汇率在离岸市场同样走弱，盘中接连跌破7.34和7.35关口。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; width: 95%; height: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FoYsB29DG_Ov00DugH4Ytmbq-CK2" /></section></section><section style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center; line-height: 1.8; color: #a4a4a4; letter-spacing: 1px; padding: 0px 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">图 / WInd</span></p></section><section style="padding: 0px 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; color: #0a0a0b; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">需要注意的是，<strong>离岸人民币此前曾跌破多个关口。</strong>2024年12月31日，离岸人民币汇率接连跌破7.33、7.34、7.35、7.36，一度跌至7.3698。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: #0a0a0b; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 2px;">此外，人民币对美元中间价报7.1878，调升1个基点，本周累计调升15个基点。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></p></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%; text-align: center; justify-content: center; display: flex; flex-flow: row; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: #194373; height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 15%; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; width: 33px; height: 33px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-color: #194373; border-radius: 100%; box-shadow: transparent 1.9px 4.6px 3px; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px none #3e3e3e;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; width: 100%; box-shadow: #194373 0px 0px 0px; height: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FvwglipaA6i_EJVrqBWVJ55sFusy" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: #194373; height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; color: #194373; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">美元指数刷新高</strong></p></section><section style="padding: 0px 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; color: #0a0a0b; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">美元指数近期强势不改，于1月2日盘中涨破109关口，刷新2022年11月以来的高位。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; width: 95%; height: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FigsEDhlGhcgm6qfvBS4Up1rXaah" /></section></section><section style="padding: 0px 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; color: #0a0a0b; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">华西证券指出，预计若美元指数运行在107—110区间，美元兑人民币汇率将在7.3—7.5之间波动。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">除人民币外，非美货币普遍承压。</strong>其中，欧元对美元汇率开年以来下跌0.72%，处于逾两年来最低水平附近。此外，英镑对美元汇率也跌至八个多月低点。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>未来美元指数走势如何？何时见顶？</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">据21世纪经济报道总结，多方观点认为，短期来看“强美元”或许依旧是市场的交易主线，美元指数可能会维持短期高位。光大银行金融市场部宏观研究员周茂华对记者表示，美国黏性通胀及特朗普再通胀、关税预期的加强，可能对美元构成一定支撑，预计未来一段时间内，美元将维持强势震荡格局。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">但是长期来看，美元指数面临着较为复杂的环境，不具备趋势性走强的基础。由于美联储目前还处在降息周期内，美元上涨的空间受到制约。因此从美元周期来看，大环境并不支持美元趋势性的走强。</p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section><section style="margin: 10px 0%; text-align: center; justify-content: center; display: flex; flex-flow: row; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: #194373; height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 15%; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; width: 33px; height: 33px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-color: #194373; border-radius: 100%; box-shadow: transparent 1.9px 4.6px 3px; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px none #3e3e3e;"><section style="margin: 0px 0%; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; width: 100%; box-shadow: #194373 0px 0px 0px; height: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FvwglipaA6i_EJVrqBWVJ55sFusy" /></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 20%; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; align-self: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="background-color: #194373; height: 1px; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section><section style="padding: 0px 10px; letter-spacing: 2.5px; color: #194373; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">人民币未来怎么走？</strong></p></section><section style="padding: 0px 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; color: #0a0a0b; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p><span>对于人民币汇率未来展望，浙商银行在《2025美、欧、日及人民币汇率展望》中提到，一系列逆周期调控政策的效果正在逐步显现，人民币汇率或围绕7.1—7.5双向波动，向上关注突破7.3后冲击7.35前高的力度，进而关注7.36—7.45区间的中间价逆周期因子强度。未来若外围市场关税冲击缓和或汇率成为贸易摩擦的表现形式之一，叠加国内经济稳步复苏的情形，人民币的定价有望首先修复至7.1，再试探7整数位。</span></p><p><span> </span></p><p><span>中信证券研究明明团队指出，2025年内部因素仍有望托底人民币汇率，一是考虑到直接投资账户和证券投资账户的压力，预计央行稳汇率决心较强，相关政策也有望继续加码；二是中美利差深度倒挂对于2025年人民币汇率的影响有限，国内降准、降息等操作或与其他增量政策共同助力基本面修复回升。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p></section><section style="padding: 0px 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; color: #383635; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 14px; color: #a0a0a0; box-sizing: border-box;">来 源 | 21财经</span></p></section></section><p style="display: none;"> </p> <!----></div> 再接再厉 美元还是最强势的咱们外汇储备才8000亿，老美全世界释放33万亿 干不过的只能防守 啥情况哦 都是些马后炮、分析个毛线 哎哎哎 做广告找我们，价格实惠，质量保证！
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