人民币的锚在哪里？
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: auto; width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; text-align: right; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding-right: 8px; padding-left: 8px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>引子</strong></span></p></section><section style="width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">关于人民币的锚，有很多不同的观点，有的人认为，人民币的锚在于中国的出口，还有的人认为，人民币的锚在于中国的外汇储备，更有的人认为，人民币的锚在中国的楼市。</section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">虽然这些观点都比较片面，但是，都模模糊糊指向一个点：<em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>人民币不是凭空造出来的，其背后需要某种支撑</strong></span></em>。其支撑力的来源十分多元，包括但不限于强大的出口能力、庞大的外汇储备和蓬勃的楼市。</section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">在《<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUxNjE1NjI1MA==&mid=2247491687&idx=1&sn=aefd99dab3b266d1139e9e1604bbf06a&scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" rel="noopener">美国政府将如何化解其主权债务风险？</a>》一文中，我们找到了一个基本概念来概括这种支撑——<em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>主权信用</strong></span></em>。</section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FkOBush775PhaCEw7WSD8y2OORpx" /></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font-size: 17px; display: inline !important;">假设全世界只有美元这一种货币，那么，一国的主权信用会以</span><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>利率</strong></span></em><span style="float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font-size: 17px; display: inline !important;">的形式体现，信用资质越差的国家，其债券的利率越高。</span></section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FtLX6ibEpQtIMOxXQhBIFXCtF41S" /></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal;">然而，现实世界是多货币的世界，</span><span style="background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal;">非美</span><span style="background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal;">国家的主权信用会以</span><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>汇率</strong></span></em><span style="background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal;">的形式体现，信用资质越差的国家，其汇率越难以保持稳定。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">因此，对非美国家而言，</span></span><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>最重要的任务是维护其汇率的稳定</strong></span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">，否则，该国家难以获得足够的信贷支持。</span></span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">换言之，汇率问题的本质是主权信用问题，是该国的</span></span><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>本币债务的需求问题</strong></span></em><span style="color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">。<br /></span></span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="float: none; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px; font-size: 17px; display: inline !important;"> </span></section><section style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: auto; width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; text-align: right; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding-right: 8px; padding-left: 8px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>本币债务需求的两个基本来源</strong></span></p></section><section style="width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">首先，本币债务需求的最主要来源是本国的经济增长。</span></p><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fk3W8xSR5FjgmjbD2t6ZqXQxlvAS" /></section><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">如上图所示，<em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>基本约束为主权债务的美元价格保持基本稳定</strong></span></em>，即P*保持稳定。如果经济从Y1扩张到Y2，那么，主权债务的需求曲线从D（R,Y1）扩张到<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">D（R,Y2</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">），相应的，本币信用也可以进行扩张，从S1扩张到S2。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">显而易见，如果没有经济的扩张，单纯地扩张本币信用，P*是要大幅下降的，</span><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>即缺乏支撑的信用扩张，必然导致本币的贬值</strong></span></em><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">。</span></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">此外，本币债务需求还有一个重要来源，那就是，美联储降低联邦基金利率R。</p><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FtJZpBVBq9nKpcScJOhNOPD1imtP" /></section><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">如上图所示，如果联邦基金利率从R1降低到R2，那么，非美国家的主权债务的需求曲线从<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">D（R1,Y</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">）扩张到</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">D（R2,Y1</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">），相应的，本币信用也可以在保持P*稳定的情况下进行扩张。</span><br /></span></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">总的来说，如果我们要保持本币的币值稳定，那么，本币信用的供给曲线是被两个东西限制住的：</p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>1、本国的实际经济增速Y，即映射Y→S；</strong></span></em></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>2、美联储的联邦基金利率R，即映射R→S；</strong></span></em></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"> </p><section style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: auto; width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; text-align: right; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding-right: 8px; padding-left: 8px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>非美国家如何应对美联储加息</strong></span></p></section><section style="width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">一般来说，当美联储加息时，非美国家会提高本国的政策利率r来稳定本国汇率。</span></section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fn-I5vhpM5a80ulSTLJ0kXsk59Jl" /></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">如上图所示，当联邦基金利率从R1上升到R2，本国主权债务的需求曲线从D（R1,Y）收缩到<span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">D（R2,Y</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">）。</span></span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">如果保持P*稳定占据了很高的优先级，那么，我们必须收缩本币信用。也就是说，我们需要把政策利率从r1提高到r2，使得S（r1）收缩到S（r2）。</span></span></section><blockquote class="js_blockquote_wrap"><section class="js_blockquote_digest"><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;"><em><strong>提高本国政策利率的目的是收缩本币信用，这才是跟随式加息的实质。</strong></em></p></section></blockquote><section style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fvh_RUX4kKWtndKRzXlIW3Ygk3r8" /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">这种情形适用于利率市场化的国家；</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">对于利率管制程度高的国家，政策利率不必然是提高的，</span><em style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>只要通过信贷政策降低本币债务增速即可</strong></span></em><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">。</span></p><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fg67yiErQj2jP8oT8zGQuv_-x6bN" /></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">在《<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUxNjE1NjI1MA==&mid=2247491663&idx=1&sn=7e07bf8b567d269639515123026af74e&scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" rel="noopener">关于央行对货币投放的收紧和稳汇率压力的重新分配</a>》一文中，我们讨论过这个问题。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">国内的信贷体系是一个两部门的信贷体系，一个部门是核心部门，另一个部门是其他部门。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">政策利率所决定的是</span><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>信贷资源如何在两部门分配：</strong></span></em></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">当政策利率降低时，核心部门的边际利率降低，但是，其他部门的边际利率提高；反之，核心部门的边际利率提高，但是，其他部门的边际利率降低。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;">总的来说，<em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>应对美联储加息的核心手段在于降低本币债务增速</strong></span></em>。不同国家的实现手段不一样，利率市场化的国家会通过提高政策利率来实现，金融压抑的国家会通过信贷政策来实现，政策利率会负责其他工作。</section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"> </span></section><section style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: auto; width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; text-align: right; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding-right: 8px; padding-left: 8px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>逆周期调节的约束</strong></span></p></section><section style="width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">在过去几年，投资者们有一个特别大的困惑：为什么不搞大规模的财政刺激来应对经济增速的下滑？？</span></section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fl4SP1_E-y1E2sHAOBR45rsZ_LF2" /></section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;">如上图所示，为了应对美联储加息+本国经济萎靡所带来的本币债务需求收缩，<em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>政府大力刺激财政来扩张本币信用</strong></span></em>，这会导致P*大幅下降至P**，即带来很大的贬值压力。</section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;">在这里有一个十分重要的<em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>分叉</strong></span></em>，如果本币债务扩张，能够带来实际经济增长，那么，P**会重新提高到P*；反之，如果本币债务扩张，无法带来足够的经济增长，那么，P**会继续降低。</section><blockquote class="js_blockquote_wrap"><section class="js_blockquote_digest"><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;"><em><strong>债务扩张效率是一个关键问题。</strong></em></p></section></blockquote><section style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em;">如果把这个故事放到一个企业中，情况会更加清晰明了：</span><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em;">为了寻找新的业务增长点，一个企业会举债扩张，如果新业务成功了，企业的财务状况会好转；</span><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em;">反之，新业务失败了，企业的财务状况会进一步恶化。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FhG8FDKnfB0VwQvDHCNNbnwIb0Zd" /></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">一般来说，股东是很激进的，他们希望管理层举债扩张，寻找新的可能性；相反，债权人是保守的，他们希望管理层审慎决策，不要随意扩张。</section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">事实上，大部分投资者的想法跟股东类似，他们会有意无意地忽略主权信用风险，<em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>希望国家做大规模的逆周期调节</strong></span></em>。</section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;">但是，整个国家的管理层并不是这么想的，他们的想法跟债权人类似，相对保守很多。当主权债务的需求曲线收缩时，他们会优先收缩债务供给，防守一波再说。所以，最近几年，我们经常会提到“精准”二字。</section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-left: auto; width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; text-align: right; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section><section style="padding-right: 8px; padding-left: 8px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>结束语</strong></span></p></section><section style="width: 40px; height: 5px; line-height: 5px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 5px; height: 5px; border-radius: 50%; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; background-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section><section style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #000000; border-right-color: #000000; border-bottom-color: #000000; border-left-color: #000000; box-sizing: border-box;"></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">综上所述，我们就梳理清楚了人民币的三个主要锚点：</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>1、本国的实际经济增速Y；</strong></span></em></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>2、联邦基金利率R；</strong></span></em></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>3、管理层的债务审慎状况；</strong></span></em></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">当我们围绕着“人民币的锚”去思考当下的问题时，就能消除很多“预期差”，譬如，大规模财政刺激的</span><em><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>时机问题</strong></span></em><span style="font-size: 17px;">。<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;">如果我们不在乎主权信用风险，不在乎人民币币值，不在乎一些长远问题，我们的确可以立即、马上去做大规模财政刺激。但是，现实情况是，我们很在乎。<br /></span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%; height: auto;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Ft9hUS1qeuW0nYZIQTTP2HyebaCN" /></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">更进一步，我们还能明白美国相对于我们的金融优势在哪里，</span><em style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>美元是全球货币</strong></span></em><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">，他们不必像我们那样去小心翼翼地维护币值稳定，他们想逆周期调节就可以立马进行逆周期调节，根本不用考虑时机的问题。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">最后，当我们把美元当成全球唯一的货币，把人民币想象成外面的那层皮肤，本文的推理是</span><em style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize); letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><strong>平凡的</strong></span></em><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">他们的美元，我们的问题，这个世界就是这样不公平。</span></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"></section><section style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">来源：虎嗅</span></section> <!----></div> 今年破10 一年后破10 看一看 有想去柬埔寨工作的私信我，正规公司，保底7000、平均工资30000左右！ 哦哦哦
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