特朗普全球关税被判违法，其他手段正在路上
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: 1em; margin-bottom: 0px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FnWJT6gsTmKT7Ph9w5w23qLyU1lC" /></section><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 1em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><strong><strong><span style="caret-color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; font-family: PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #7dbb91; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #7dbb91; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; width: 577.969px !important; border: 0px none currentcolor;">◆美国联邦巡回上诉法院8月29日裁定，特朗普援引的用于对多国征收关税的法律，实际上并未赋予其征税权。</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">实施不足一个月，特朗普祭出的大部分全球关税遭遇法律挑战。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当地时间</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">29</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定，总统特朗普批准对多国征收关税时援引的《国际紧急经济权力法》实际上并没有赋予其征收这些税款的权力。法院给出缓冲期至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">10</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">14</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日，以便最高法院审议。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">7</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日起，美国对</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">69</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">个贸易伙伴的输美商品征收</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">15%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">41%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">不等的“对等关税”。过去一段时间，英国、欧盟、日本、韩国、菲律宾等十个贸易伙伴相继与华盛顿达成协议，以求“止损”。但除英国与美方签署了正式文件外，其余多数仍停留在框架协议阶段。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">与此同时，印度、巴西等新兴经济体在这场关税地震中承受了尤为沉重的打击。高额关税不仅让它们倍感压力，也逐渐将其推向美国的对立面，有关自力更生的呼声愈发高涨。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在通胀回归、失业率攀升的背景下，美国经济学家普遍认为特朗普的“关税经济学”难以为继，但他仍对此乐此不疲，并寻求将征税范围扩展至更多领域、更多国家。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FltTPZ6puMdqNgujU9-5Ylk8oY4T" /></section><p> </p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-size: 17px; text-align: center; width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Foa6LRGHdDa6i84RGt4UD0Xw0G29" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><p>传统盟友面临胁迫</p></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">美欧于</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">7</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">27</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日达成关税协议，并在</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">21</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日正式敲定贸易框架的具体内容，为不断升温的贸易冲突画下阶段性句号。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据协议，欧盟输美产品将仅被征收</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">15%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的关税。作为交换，欧盟将取消对美国商品的关税，并承诺欧洲企业将购买数千亿美元的美国产品，美国与欧盟的年度贸易额超过与任何单一国家的双边贸易额。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“这一框架协议将使我们的贸易和投资关系——全球最大之一——建立在坚实的基础上，并将重振我们经济的再工业化。”美欧在</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">21</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日发布的联合声明中表示。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">据彭博社披露，为了落实协议，欧盟正按照特朗普的要求，全面取消对美国产品的关税，以换取美方尽快将对欧盟汽车的关税降至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">15%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">。为加快推进相关立法，欧盟委员会甚至破例放弃了惯常的影响评估程序。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fhb4GIshwlcDIPd1N8O5Xx6Q8o_w" /></section><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 1em; margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><strong><strong><strong><span style="caret-color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; font-family: PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #7dbb91; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #7dbb91; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; width: 577.969px !important; border: 0px none currentcolor;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日，特朗普将矛头转向数字税，威胁将对英国和欧盟加征关税和出口限制。这是由于，欧盟和英国虽已分别与美国签署贸易协议，但欧盟可借助《数字服务法案》限制大型科技公司的影响力，其中法国、意大利和西班牙等成员国均实施了数字服务税。</span></span></span></strong></strong></strong></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">作为七国集团中唯一尚未与美国达成关税协议的国家，加拿大的处境最为尴尬。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">由于芬太尼走私和非法移民指控，加拿大成为特朗普政府的重点打击对象：自</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日起，加拿大部分商品关税已升至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">35%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">。不过，这些关税仅针对不被《美墨加协定》覆盖的商品。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">面对美方的施压，加拿大三度祭出反制措施，对价值约</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">600</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">亿美元的美国产消费品加征关税，并对美制汽车征税。加拿大总理卡尼一度承认谈判“异常复杂”，但他强调，加政府仍在寻求对本国最有利的结果。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">转机出现在</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">21</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日——卡尼当天与特朗普通话，讨论了包括贸易在内的相关议题。次日，卡尼宣布加拿大将自</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日起取消部分对美关税。白宫在一份声明中称，加拿大“早该做出”相关举措，并表示这一姿态为“继续与加拿大就贸易与国家</span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">安全关切展开讨论铺平了道路”。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在贸易专家看来，特朗普正利用美国的关税政策，将一些条款强加给那些不那么情愿的参与方。尽管关税的执行相对直接，但投资和采购承诺的监管却没那么容易。例如，欧盟无权强制企业进行其所承诺的投资类型，而日本承诺的大部分投资将以贷款形式进行。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">一份宣布欧盟计划的情况说明书留出了一定余地，称“欧盟企业表示有兴趣在美国各行业投资至少</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">6000</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">亿美元”。“我认为，包括那些已宣布承诺的国家在内，很多人都对这些承诺的实际含义存在诸多疑问。”美国外交关系委员会主席、曾在奥巴马政府担任首席贸易谈判代表的迈克尔·弗罗曼（</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Michael Froman</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）说，“这些承诺是否具有约束力？如果这些国家在特定时期内没有完成一定数额的投资，关税会恢复吗？”</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">哥伦比亚商学院教授丹尼尔·埃姆斯（</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Daniel R. Ames</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）表示，特朗普的贸易协议谈判方式源自他作为商人的经历——特朗普因在谈判中以极低报价扰乱对手、令人眼花缭乱的推销话术，以及善于利用对方弱点获取优势而闻名。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">但埃姆斯指出，日本、韩国和欧盟等贸易伙伴在公布可能最终落空的巨额投资承诺时，或许是在迎合特朗普的虚荣心。“如果你在与一个自恋者谈判，你要想办法让他们觉得自己赢了。”</span></span><span style="line-height: 1em; caret-color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; font-family: PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #7dbb91; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #7dbb91; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; width: 577.969px !important; border: 0px none currentcolor;"><br /></span></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-size: 17px; text-align: center; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; display: inline; width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FpyOD6I6BwCNtIdyzp6KPnnd4N8R" /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><section><p>更多关税正在路上</p></section></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">虽然“对等关税”面临司法挑战，特朗普政府仍有其他手段——譬如依据《贸易扩展法》第</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">232</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">条款的行业关税，来确保其贸易议程得以延续。一系列高强度、密集化的操作，不仅让各国措手不及，也令整个国际社会为之震动。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">特朗普</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日表示，将对进口药品征收“小额关税”，并计划未来一年将其逐步提高至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">250%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">。次日，他进一步宣布将对进口半导体产品征收</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">100%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的关税，但不适用于已承诺或启动程序在美国制造相关产品的企业。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">关税清单也不断扩大。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">19</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日，美国商务部发布公告，将</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">407</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">个产品类别纳入</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">50%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的钢铁和铝关税征收范围，涵盖风力涡轮机及其零部件、移动起重机、推土机和其他重型设备、铁路车厢、家具、压缩机和泵以及数百种其他产品。据估算，最新一轮措施使受美国金属关税影响的进口制成品总价值超过</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3000</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">亿美元。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">最新通知涵盖的范围之广、执行速度之快，让很多人直呼意外。总部在密歇根的贸易合规咨询服务机构</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Trade IQ</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的总裁布莱恩特（</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Shannon Bryant</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）表示：“今年以来，我们经历了许多这种在最后一刻措施落地的情况，而这一次尤其如此，极大影响了我的每一个客户。”</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fgwr6jsLC-hhZlTw6R4ZebdCWo8L" /></section><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 1em; margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><strong><strong><strong><span style="caret-color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; font-family: PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #7dbb91; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #7dbb91; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; width: 577.969px !important; border: 0px none currentcolor;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从业人士指出，相关官方指引模糊不清，尤其对已在运往美国的商品应该如何处置，对于金属关税是否在国别关税基础上追加征收也不明朗。</span></span></span></strong></strong></strong></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">除了金属，特朗普</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">22</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日宣布，美国或在未来几个月对进口家具加征大幅关税。数据显示，</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2025</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">年上半年，美国进口的消费类家具总额超过</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">200</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">亿美元。这一规模与玩具、家电和棉质服装相当，构成美国最大的消费品进口类别之一。其主要进口来源国包括越南、中国、加拿大和墨西哥，但本土家具产业却陷入持续衰退。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">特朗普因此向美国家居行业喊话，表示关税将“把家具产业带回北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州、密歇根州，并逐步遍布全国”。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">据悉，美国政府计划每年开放三次窗口，允许企业申请将更多产品纳入关税范围，下一轮申请将于</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月开始。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">29</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日起，在美国实施了近一个世纪的“小额包裹关税豁免”（</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">de minimis</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）也成为历史。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">800</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">元以下的小额包裹过去无须清关即可输入美国，今后须经检查，并依来源地及包裹价值征税，税率区间为</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">15%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">50%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据美国海关与边境保护局（</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CBP</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）公布的指南，经由快递与物流业者（例如</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">FedEx</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">、</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">UPS</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">、</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">DHL</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）输入美国的小额包裹都要负担全额关税。透过邮务体系寄送小额包裹，则有</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">6</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">个月过渡期，其间可选择采用基于包裹价值的计费方式，或是直接支付固定关税。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这一政策直接推高了跨境包裹的寄送成本。为适应新规并重新核算额外成本，包括英国、法国、德国、意大利、澳大利亚、日本在内的数十个国家已暂停寄往美国的包裹服务。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">美国彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员玛丽·拉夫利（</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Mary Lovely</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）表示，这一变化对消费者意味着“相当可观的涨价”。她指出，受低值免税政策惠及的往往是那些精打细算、对价格高度敏感的群体，政策取消后，其中一部分人可能会因此不敢消费。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">高盛</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">10</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">日发布的测算显示，截至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">6</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月，美国消费者已承担了约</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">22%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的关税成本；到</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">10</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月，这一比例将升至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">70%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">，若加上国内厂商的联动提价，整体转嫁效应几近</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">100%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">。这一结论引发特朗普的强烈不满，他甚至要求高盛解雇其首席经济学家。按照特朗普的说法，关税为美国带来了</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">万亿美元的收入。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fjlu6qKhk6B3VvmmILMpx-McWQDU" /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">不少经济学家指出，美国二季度的经济增长主要受益于进口锐减，而非内需复苏。眼下美国零售销售疲软、房屋开工跌至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2020</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">年以来新低，</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">7</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月仅增加了</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">7.3</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">万个就业岗位，远逊于预期。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">6</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">月的消费者价格指数同比上涨</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2.7%</span></span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">，创下两年来新高。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">经济学家表示，新的关税措施生效之际，美国经济已出现紧张迹象。近几个月来，招聘开始停滞，通胀压力上升，房价开始下降，经济正在逐步衰退。“就像细沙掉进齿轮，会让转速减慢。”</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">来源：凤凰weekly国际</span></span></p> <!----></div> 不得人心 判他死刑 谁说了算 ;P;P;P;P;P;P:lol:lol:lol 太难了
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