阿努廷恐成过渡总理，泰国政治危机继续
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="text-align: center; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/Fu9pXI2r4sMFCY7O1P2JnHVYnW3O" /></section><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 1em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><strong><strong><strong><span style="caret-color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; font-family: PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #7dbb91; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #7dbb91; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; width: 577.969px !important; border: 0px none currentcolor;">9月5日，自豪泰党党首阿努廷（中）当选泰国新总理。</span></strong></strong></strong></span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; font-size: 17px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #7dbb91; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px;">文丨<strong style="line-height: 1.75em; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; color: #7dbb91; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px;">胡毓堃</strong></span></strong></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #7dbb91; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px;">编辑丨漆菲</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当地时间</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9月5日下午，泰国国会下议院召开特别会议、票选新总理。自豪泰党提名的总理候选人阿努廷·参威拉军获得到场490名议员中311人支持，战胜</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">了</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">为泰党提名的猜格森</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">·尼迪西里，当选泰国第32任总理。根据法定程序，阿努廷在获得国王批准后正式就职。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">阿努廷以少数党候选人之姿当选总理，是因为这位资深政治人物在泰国当前特殊的政坛环境下成为多方的最大共识，尤其是与政治光谱截然不同的下议院最大党人民党达成协议，换取后者支持。然而根据双方协议，新总理及其少数政府只具有过渡性质，必须在</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4个月内解散国会、重新大选。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">两年内诞生第三位总理，并不意味着泰国政治危机的结束。阿努廷的当选是标志着泰国开始走出政坛困局，还是启动政坛洗牌、下一轮争斗的倒计时？结合</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9月4日晚前总理他信搭乘私人飞机离境的动向，有待揭晓的悬念有增无减。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">阿努廷领导的自豪泰党是下议院第三大党，在</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">500个议席中占据69席。随着</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">前总理</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">佩通坦于</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8月29日遭到泰国宪法法院解职，保守派（保皇派-军方建制派）坚决反对主打进步派招牌的人民党组建政府，阿努廷与为泰党最后一位总理候选人猜格森成为继任总理的主要热门人选。双方围绕组阁谈判的赛跑，亦早早拉开帷幕。</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FkSOmbLzmCXjkYLFzuOmpFYwe7EI" /></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 1em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><strong><strong><span style="caret-color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; font-family: PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #7dbb91; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #7dbb91; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; width: 577.969px !important; border: 0px none currentcolor;">2024年8月18日，佩通坦在曼谷拥抱父亲他信。当天佩通坦正式出任总理。</span></strong></strong></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在下议院拥有</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">143个议席的人民党虽然不能“称王”，却成为最大的“造王者”。宪法法院正式罢免佩通坦数小时后，人民党提出三点要求：人民党只签署</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所谓</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">信任供给</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">（</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">confidence and supply</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">协议、就重大议案支持新政府，但不加入联合政府；新政府在</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4个月内推动修宪；新政府</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">需要</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4个月内解散国会、重新大选。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自豪泰党和阿努廷嗅到了迈向总理府的契机，不仅</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">迅速</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接触人民党，承诺接受</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">后者</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的协议，</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">还开始</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">联系</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其他</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">政党、寻求支持。相比之下，为泰党</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">则</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">慢了一拍、反应被动：该党的代理总理普坦</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">直到</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8月30日</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">才宣布跟进、接触人民党，同时以国会版图实力为由，质疑自豪泰党的组阁能力。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8月31日，人民党与为泰党</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">、</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">民主党举行谈判，人民党党首那塔蓬</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">·琅班亚武表示</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">，</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">将在</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">第二天公布</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">该党</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">决定。可</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">到了</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9月1日，</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">该党并未形成最终决定，而是在党内就其决策举行民调。</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9月3日，人民党终于宣布支持自豪泰党组建过渡政府，并</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在之前的基础上</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">新增两点</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">诉求</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">：在下届大选之前举行修宪公投，或由本届国会完成修宪流程；自豪泰党不得寻求组建多数政府。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">阿努廷凭借与人民党达成前所未有的</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“信任供给五点协议”，加之声称获得7个政党</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">、</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">146名议员</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">支持，他确保得到超过半数的</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">289名议员同意票。</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">由此，</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">为泰党维系执政的努力以失败告终（</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9月3日提请解散国会遭到枢密院驳回）。新总理</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">票选结果显示，阿努廷获得了</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">311票支持，猜格森只得到152票。</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/FiKXEsXQR1p9kSssy6E1M9k2W-MS" /></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 1em; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><strong><strong><span style="caret-color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; text-align: left; font-family: PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #7dbb91; text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: #7dbb91; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-indent: 0em; width: 577.969px !important; border: 0px none currentcolor;">现年58岁的阿努廷以身段柔软、灵活摇摆、善于交易著称。</span></strong></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">人民党</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">之所以</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">选择支持自豪泰党和阿努廷，而非政治光谱相对更近的为泰党，看似意料之外，实则合乎情理。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">首先，为泰党在</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2023年大选后</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">选择</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“背刺”远进党（人民党前身），后又试图争夺阿努廷的内政部长之位，自豪泰党遂于“通话门”事件后与为泰党分道扬镳。对人民党和自豪泰党而言，为泰党不再是可以信赖的合作</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">伙伴</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">此外在</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“通话门”后，为泰党的民意支持</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">率</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">跌落谷底，甚至被阿努廷反超，完全成为</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“负资产”。更不用说人民党和为泰党在国会</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">中的</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">版图</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">十分</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接近，</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">后者在决策中并不占优</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">对</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">人民党</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">来说，虽然</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">支持自豪泰党但不正式</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“合流”，既不影响</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">自己</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">的进步派招牌，又可</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“借力打力”：在无需冒风险亲自出面的情况下，利用自豪泰党政府尽早结束现有政治危机、推动修宪进程、接近自己的改革诉求；</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">此外</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">还能借机分化、瓦解为泰党与保守派执政联盟，在提前选举中继续扩大版图。</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p style="margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">更重要的是，泰国政坛动荡的结构性原因在于进步派与保守派的对冲愈发激烈，为泰党与保守派</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">基于</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">权宜之计的合作趋于破裂。处于中右翼生态位、维护君主制、兼顾经济自由主义和传统保守价值的自豪泰党反而显得难能可贵，成为各方博弈中妥协、都能接受的产物。</span></span></span><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">（作者系国际政治专栏作家、中国翻译协会会员</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">）<br /><br />来源：凤凰WEEKLY国际</span></span></span></strong></p><p style="display: none;"> </p> <!----></div> 泰国华侨总理广东加油 泰国政坛动荡的结构性原因在于进步派与保守派的对冲愈发激烈，为泰党与保守派基于权宜之计的合作趋于破裂。你刚唱罢我登台，苦了底层老百姓。 吃水不忘挖井人，给洪森打个电话要表示感谢哦！ 希望柬埔寨越来越好，更多投资，经济高速发展
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