柬埔寨2026年经济放缓：真正的原因是什么？
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251207/17650802208874978859.png" /></section><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">柬埔寨政府与 IMF 均预计，2026年柬埔寨 GDP 增速将放缓至 4% 左右。这被官方描述为“短暂放缓”，并将在 2027 年触底后反弹。然而，对经济的真正影响，不仅来自预测数字本身，而是隐藏在数字背后的短期冲击和结构性脆弱性。只有理解两者如何叠加作用，才能真正看清柬埔寨未来几年的经济轨迹。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">一、短期冲击：2025年的边境事件带来连锁反应</span></h3><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"> </h3><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2025年柬泰边境的关闭，是自疫情以来对柬埔寨最严重的短期经济冲击，其影响远超金融波动或大宗商品价格变化。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">1. 汇款骤降：农村消费“失速”</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">约 120 万柬埔寨劳工在泰国工作，每年向国内汇回 15 亿美元。在多个省份，汇款占农村家庭收入的 20–30%。</span><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">边境关闭直接切断了这部分收入来源，对农村市场的消费、借贷能力与流动性造成明显冲击。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2. 柬泰贸易近乎停摆：物流成本飙升</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">柬泰贸易量在关闭期间暴跌 97%。</span><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">出口企业被迫改走更长的航线，使物流成本上涨 8–12%，削弱了制造业与农产品出口的竞争力。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">3. 旅游下降：本就不高的游客消费被进一步压缩</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">来自邻国的游客减少 40%。柬埔寨游客平均消费仅 700–750 美元，为泰国、越南的一半，因此“量的下降”带来“倍数损害”。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">这些因素共同构成一次收入 + 贸易 + 旅游 + 流动性的综合冲击，为 2026 年经济放缓奠定了直接原因。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">二、结构性问题：为什么同样的冲击在柬埔寨更“疼”？</span></h3><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"> </h3><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">边境事件只是导火索，但这次经济放缓之所以更深，是因为柬埔寨存在五大结构性脆弱点。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">1. 生产率偏低：缺乏应对冲击的缓冲</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">世界银行数据显示，柬埔寨劳动力产出比可比国家低 40–70%。</span><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">农业仍吸纳超过 300 万劳动力，但无法释放推动产业升级所需的人力资源。</span><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">这意味着当外部冲击来临时，柬埔寨缺乏内部生产率增长作为“减震器”。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2. 人力资本弱：最根本的长期发展瓶颈</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">学习贫困率居东亚最高：</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（1）90%的10岁儿童无法流畅阅读</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（2）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">数学能力远低于地区标准</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">这导致：</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（1）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">低技能劳动力过剩</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（2）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">中级技能严重短缺</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（3）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">无法吸引高质量外资进入制造业升级链条</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">换句话说：没有技能，就无法吸引更好的投资；没有更好的投资，就无法提升技能。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">3. 成本结构上升速度快于生产率增长</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（1）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">工业用电：平均13.7美分/千瓦时（越南的近2倍）</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（2）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">最低工资增长快，但生产率没有同步提升</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（3）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">中国占柬埔寨FDI的52%，随着中国经济放缓，对柬投资动能也下降</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（4）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">80%的劳动力处于非正规部门，使税收、监管与技术提升困难</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">这意味着柬埔寨的成本越来越像中等收入国家，而其生产率仍停留在低收入水平。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">4. 制度执行力不足：政策落地效果不佳</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">投资者最常抱怨的问题不是税率，而是不可预期性。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（1）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">不同口岸的海关手续不一致</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（2）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">政府部门权责重复</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（3）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">法规设计良好，但执行不稳定</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">这降低了投资信心，使经济在受到外部冲击时更易下滑。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">5. 金融体系风险累积</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（1）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">私人信贷余额超过GDP的110%（区域最高之一）</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（2）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">不良贷款（NPL）升至7.9%，房地产和建筑业风险暴露上升</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">随着银行收紧信贷：消费下降、投资放缓、企业现金流困难，经济放缓进一步加剧。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">三、旅游业：从“被动行业”到“战略杠杆”</span></h3><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"> </h3><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">柬埔寨游客消费（700-750美元）比泰国、越南低50%。</span><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">不是游客不来，而是游客来了花得少。</span><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">这反映了三点：</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（1）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">旅游产品单一</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（2）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">景点之间交通不便</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（3）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">目的地管理仍不足</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">若从“追求游客数量”转向“提升游客价值（yield）”，旅游业将成为经济恢复的最快杠杆。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">四、结构性改革方向：越早行动越不痛</span></h3><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"> </h3><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">专家指出，三项改革具有最高“乘数效应”，会直接影响未来5年的增长：</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">1. 边境与区域流动恢复</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">可同时修复汇款、物流、旅游与劳动力供给，是最快见效的经济药方。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2. 降低能源成本</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">电价决定产业升级、制造业吸引力与外资布局。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">3. 提升海关与物流效率</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">提高企业竞争力与投资信心，立竿见影。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">一旦这些基础结构改善，人力资本、旅游升级与经济正规化的成效将成倍提升。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">五、柬埔寨的未来：三种GDP增速可能的轨迹（2027-2030）</span></h3><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"> </h3><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">1.乐观情景（5.8-6.2%）</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">改革落地、物流改善、电价下降、旅游升级。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">2.基准情景（4.5~5%）</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">边境恢复部分、产业结构不变、金融稳定但无提升。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><strong style="font-weight: 600;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">3,悲观情景（3.5~4%）</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size: 15px;">若边境问题持续、NPL上升、生产率停滞，加之若美国重新施加高关税，GDP 恐损失1个百分点，并减少13万就业岗位。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">六、结语：柬埔寨的2026年放缓并不意外，关键在于如何反弹</span></h3><h3 style="font: 700 20px / 2em quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"> </h3><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">柬埔寨当前面临的，是一次短期冲击与长期结构性问题叠加的经济压力点。要实现2027年的真正反弹，必须同时处理：</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（1）</span><span style="font-size: 15px;">短期修复（边境、物流、旅游）</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">（2）长期能力建设（生产率、人力资本、正规化）</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">如果能抓住改革窗口期，柬埔寨将在2027~2030年重回高增长轨道；若改革停滞，则未来几年可能陷入长期“中速增长陷阱”。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; color: #0f1115; font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, Open Sans, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; line-height: 2em;"> </p><section style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; line-height: 2em;"></section><p style="display: none;"> </p> <!----></div> 分析很到位啊越来越好 看一看 你看好2026吗？更好？还是更坏？ 体量太小 都打仗了谈这些有用吗 大气候原因 一句话人懒工资要高，一根筋落后就要挨打。
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