“没完没了”的战火，柬泰没机会“和好”了吗？
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251208/17651878227035107687.png" /></section><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 8px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; color: #888888;">记者：Miles</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">战斗机再次升空，炮火重新在边境回响，柬泰边境再一次被推向国际舆论的聚光灯下。截至目前，柬方4死9伤，泰方1死8伤。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">8日，泰国空军发表声明称，鉴于“威胁不断升级”，为防止局势恶化，对柬方军方目标实施了空中打击，并强调此次行动严格遵守国际法准则，目的是保护泰国人民生命安全，不具备进攻意图。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">几乎在同一时间，柬埔寨国防部发言人发表措辞严厉的声明，指责泰军在柏威夏省安塞地区率先发动袭击，并动用坦克向柏威夏寺附近边境区域多次开火，称这是泰方连续多日挑衅升级的结果。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">双方说法针锋相对，却指向同一个现实——两国边境的紧张局势，正在突破以往“低烈度对峙”的阈值，向更高风险迈进。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">从公开信息来看，双方都在强调“自卫”“克制”“遵守国际法”，但战机出动与重火力使用本身，已是对地区安全稳定的严重冲击。空中打击作为高度升级的军事行为，即便被界定为“防御性行动”，在国际法实践中也极易引发更大范围的冲突外溢，这正是包括联合国与东盟长期以来反复呼吁各方谨慎对待的根本原因。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251208/17651878247552382709.png" /></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"> </p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">柬埔寨方面在声明中表示，已将事件通报东盟观察团，并计划请求东盟展开调查。这一举动具有重要象征意义。根据《东南亚友好合作条约》和东盟历来奉行的“协商一致”“和平解决争端”原则，成员国间出现武装摩擦，本应优先纳入东盟多边框架下处理。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">无论是2011年柏威夏寺周边武装冲突，还是更早阶段的边境摩擦，联合国安理会与国际法院都曾多次介入或裁决，核心目标只有一个：防止历史争端演变为失控的军事对抗。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">而柬泰边境问题并非偶发性事件，而是殖民时期遗留边界划分、民族情绪、国内政治压力与地区地缘博弈交织的结果。柏威夏寺归属问题早在1962年便由国际法院裁定归属柬埔寨，2013年国际法院再度就周边区域解释裁决，要求双方尊重柬方对寺庙及其周边特定范围的主权，同时通过双边谈判解决具体边界执行问题。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">但判决并未自动消解双方在实地控制、巡逻路线、军事部署等层面的摩擦空间，反而在部分政治周期中被反复“再政治化”，成为民族主义动员的工具。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">从泰国国内政治视角观察，军方在泰国政治体系中长期扮演重要角色，边境安全议题往往被视为其合法性与影响力的重要支点。柬埔寨方面则同样面临主权安全与国内舆论的双重压力。一旦发生伤亡或领土争议被放大，任何“退让”都可能被解读为政治软弱。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">这种结构性困境，使得边境局势极易在短时间内被推向“以牙还牙”的对抗轨道，而真正理性的降温机制反而更难启动。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251208/17651878263298575306.jpeg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">边境紧张从来不是“抽象的国家安全问题”。泰柬边境地区本就高度依赖跨境贸易、劳务往来和旅游业，任何军事对峙都会迅速转化为实实在在的经济损失。边境口岸关闭、交通受阻、投资信心下降，最终承受代价的往往是普通民众和中小经营者。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">从当前信息披露看，双方均尚未宣布进入全面战争状态，也都在表述中保留了“克制”“遵守国际法”“继续关注局势”等空间，这为外交斡旋留下了窗口期。但必须看到，一旦战斗机参与实战，冲突的不可控性呈指数级上升。空中行动对情报判断、指挥链路和误判容忍度的要求极高，任何技术误差、情报偏差或前线误判，都可能引发超出双方预期的剧烈后果。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">柬埔寨请求东盟观察团介入调查，是当前局势下较为理性的制度性选择。东盟虽长期被外界批评“效率有限”，但在成员国冲突降温方面仍具备独特渠道优势。通过第三方调查、事实核查与多边协商，至少可以为后续谈判建立最低限度的共识基础，防止舆论战与信息战进一步放大敌意。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251208/17651878279271126061.jpeg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">从长远来看，柬泰边境之所以“没完没了”，核心不在于某一次交火本身，而在于结构性矛盾始终未被真正“制度化解决”。双边联合委员会的谈判机制、国际法院裁决后的执行安排、军事互信措施的落实情况，长期存在推进缓慢、阶段性中断甚至被国内政治节奏打断的问题。当外交机制无法持续运转时，军事工具便更容易被重新提上桌面。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">战斗机再次起飞，本身就是一个危险信号。它不仅意味着技术层面的军事升级，也意味着政治层面的互信正在退化。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">对于柬埔寨与泰国而言，真正的安全并非来自更强的火力展示，而来自稳定、可预期、可约束的争议处理机制。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">国际社会的普遍经验早已反复证明：边界争议没有“速胜方案”，只有“缓慢而艰难的制度消解”。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">当前最现实、也最负责任的路径，仍然是尽快回到多边与双边谈判轨道，允许东盟机制、国际法框架发挥应有作用，防止边境问题被继续军事化、情绪化和工具化。否则，“这一次的交火”很可能不会是最后一次，而是新一轮恶性循环的起点。</span></span></p><p style="display: none;"> </p> <!----></div> 搞你園區太狂了 搞你園區太狂了 希望柬埔寨越来越好，更多投资，经济高速发展和平解决 泰国言而无信，太过分了，欺负弱小，把老百姓害了 好的 真是没完没了啊 都说是对方先动手
页:
[1]
2