“战争”背后的“战争”！柬泰两国的“仇恨”难解
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=20240712"><!-- 付费贴--> <div class="preview_article "> <!----> <p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251210/17653388234001935357.png" /></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 8px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; color: #888888;">记者：Miles</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">截至12月9日早上，柬埔寨国防部通报，泰国军队在柬泰边境多地发动的袭击已造成至少7名柬埔寨平民死亡、20人受伤，所有伤者正由医疗团队紧急救治。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">几乎在同一时间，泰国军方也确认，最新一轮冲突已造成1名泰国士兵死亡、18人受伤。短短数日，边境再度战火升级。过去一年来，这样的数字并非第一次出现，却一次比一次沉重。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">当炮火不断在边境回响时，柬泰两国的对立，早已不只是军队之间的对峙，而是正在深度渗透进两国社会的情绪、消费、舆论与日常生活之中，一种“被仇恨包围的关系”正在成形。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">甚至美国总统以及中国，包括东南亚其他国家都难以化解柬泰两国的冲突矛盾。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">这场危机的导火索，可以追溯到2025年5月底。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">当时，柬泰在交界地区发生短暂交火，持续时间约10分钟，造成1名柬埔寨士兵死亡。虽然时间短暂，但双方各执一词，互相指责对方率先开火。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">随后数周，边境局势持续紧张，多次发生地雷爆炸事件，泰国士兵受伤，泰方指控柬埔寨“新埋地雷”，柬方则反驳称这些都是战后遗留地雷，问题迅速上升为外交争端。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">进入7月，局势急剧恶化，从零星摩擦演变为持续多日的大规模交火。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">7月24日至26日，泰国方面通报至少20人死亡，其中包括13名平民和7名军人；柬埔寨则确认已有5名士兵阵亡、21人受伤，奥多棉吉省等地至少8名平民死亡、50人受伤。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em; margin-top: 0px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251210/17653388252335175868.png" /></section><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">随着战火持续蔓延，双方公布的死亡人数不断上升，平民伤亡比例不断扩大，被迫撤离的边境居民超过10万人。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: normal;">国际媒体综合双方官方数据推算，这一阶段的冲突至少造成40余人死亡，成为2011年以来最严重的一次柬泰武装对抗。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">10月下旬，在区域国家斡旋下，双方在马来西亚签署和平协议，宣布“立即无条件停火”。当时，外界一度对局势降温抱有期待。然而，这种脆弱的和平仅维持了一个多月。进入12月，双方再次在边境交火，泰国空军出动战斗机实施空袭，冲突再度升级为重武器对抗。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">泰方确认1名士兵身亡，柬方则连续通报平民死亡人数不断上升，暂时定格在7死20伤的最新数字。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">这意味着，仅2025年一年内，柬泰边境冲突已造成双方数十名军人和平民死亡、百余人受伤，成为近年来东南亚最严重、最具持续性的跨国边境军事紧张局势之一。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">与战火同步升级的，还有经济层面的“隐形战争”。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">5月底交火后，泰国以安全为由逐步收紧边境通行，随后宣布临时关闭全部对柬陆路口岸，并要求境内泰国公民撤离柬埔寨。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">作为反制，柬埔寨开始在贸易层面施压，警告若泰国不恢复边境通行，将禁止泰国农产品入境。很快，泰国水果、蔬菜在多个柬埔寨口岸被暂停通行，禁令随后扩大至汽油、柴油、液化气、燃料油甚至其他领域。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">7月中旬，柬埔寨海关总署正式发布命令，禁止多种泰国商品进口；而参议院主席洪森随后又宣布，暂停从泰国进口“战略物资”，范围进一步扩大到能源、电力、网络服务以及泰国影视作品。泰剧被大规模下架，泰国品牌被紧急审视，这场“经济切割”以极快速度从边境口岸扩散到普通人的生活空间。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">从数据上看，冲突已直接冲击双边贸易。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">2025年前10个月，柬泰贸易额约32.08亿美元，同比下滑9.3%。其中柬埔寨自泰进口额明显下降，仅7月单月的同比降幅就达到40%以上。对高度依赖泰国燃料、食品、日用品供应的柬埔寨而言，这种“去泰化”并非轻松的选择；而对大量依赖柬埔寨市场的泰国农民和中小企业来说，突然失去重要出口渠道，同样造成连锁性冲击。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em; margin-top: 0px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" style="width: 100%;" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251210/17653388275846234854.jpeg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">真正标志着矛盾“社会化”的，是抵制运动的全面爆发。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">7月冲突后，“停止购买泰国商品”“每一美元都是敌人的子弹”等口号在柬埔寨社交平台迅速传播。PTT加油站、Café Amazon、7-Eleven等泰国品牌在柬门店被迫更换招牌或宣布终止合作，一些商家因为继续销售泰国产品而遭到网络围攻。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">抵制不再只是经济行为，而被赋予强烈的多元标签——是否购买泰货，被解读为是否“站在国家一边”。更严厉的是，一些发表“反对抵制”言论的网红甚至被警方拘捕，理由是“扰乱社会秩序”“动摇民心”。在这种氛围下，理性讨论贸易依赖与民生代价的空间正在被迅速压缩。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">泰国社会虽然没有出现同等规模的官方抵制柬货运动，但边境冲突同样加剧了对柬埔寨的负面认知。旅行警告、人员撤离、口岸关闭不断强化“柬埔寨是危险地带”的社会印象。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">原本密切的跨境旅游、务工与商业往来大幅减少，两国普通民众的接触渠道被急剧压缩，彼此更多只能通过充满情绪色彩的社交媒体“看见”对方。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">如果只从军事冲突本身解释柬泰关系的恶化，很容易低估问题的深度。事实上，这场对立深深嵌入两国长期未解的历史积怨中。柏威夏寺及周边边界争议，殖民时期遗留下来的模糊地图，2003年金边反泰骚乱、2008至2011年的武装对峙，都已在两国社会记忆中形成“对方不可信”的固有判断。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">2025年的冲突，只是重新点燃了这些尚未熄灭的旧火种。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">与此同时，国内政治在冲突中扮演着复杂角色。泰国政局近年持续波动，军方在国家安全议题上拥有极高话语权，强硬对外立场往往能迅速赢得国内支持。柬埔寨方面，洪玛耐政府仍处于权力巩固期，在主权与领土问题上表现强硬同样具有现实政治意义。当“对外强硬”成为稳定国内政治的重要工具时，妥协反而容易被解读为软弱。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">更具破坏性的，是社交媒体时代的信息放大效应。情绪化内容比理性分析更容易传播，仇恨叙事比事实核查更容易“出圈”。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">边境一声枪响，很快就会被包装成“国家受辱”的情绪符号，在算法推动下反复强化，最终塑造成一种难以逆转的群体心理。当愤怒成为流量，战争就不仅发生在边境，也在手机屏幕上昼夜上演。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><section style="text-align: center; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em; margin-top: 0px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" src="https://pic.app.58cammp.com/20251210/17653388300888891593.jpeg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">目前，柬泰之间正陷入一种危险的悖论：两国经济上高度依赖，政治上却高度不信任。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">按理说，深度的经贸依存关系应当成为冲突的“缓冲垫”，但在民族主义叙事中，它却被简化为“被对方掐脖子”或“我们养肥了敌人”，从稳定器变成了新的不满来源。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">一边是现实离不开对方的产业结构，一边是舆论场中越来越激烈的“必须切断关系”，这种撕裂只会不断制造新的政策摇摆与社会焦虑。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">当边境的炮火最终转化为超市货架上的“国别标签”，转化为加油站的更名、电视剧的下架、社交平台的互相辱骂时，仇恨就不再只是外交语言，而成为渗入日常生活的情绪结构。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">即便未来某一天，两国再次达成停火协议、重启谈判机制，社会层面的对立也未必会随之自动消散。相反，它可能长期沉积，随时等待下一次冲突被重新激活。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">对柬埔寨而言，能源供应、物价稳定、对外贸易安全将长期承压；对泰国而言，农产品出口受阻、边境经济萎缩、区域形象受损同样是不可忽视的代价。而在安全层面，只要双方军队继续在边境高强度对峙，任何一次误判都可能再次引发不可控升级，每一次新的伤亡，都会进一步加深社会仇恨的“心理账户”。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: bold;">归根结底，真正困难的问题并不只是“边界线该怎么画”，而是如何让两国社会重新学会把对方视为“邻国”，而不是“敌国”。</span><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal; font-weight: normal;">这需要比军事对抗和贸易封锁更为复杂的政治智慧，也需要在宣传与舆论上主动为理性降温留下空间。否则，今天的“7死20伤”，很可能只是下一轮数字的前奏。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">柬埔寨和泰国曾长期共享贸易通道、劳务流动、宗教纽带和家庭联系。历史并未注定两国必须成为宿敌。真正的危险在于，如果仇恨持续被制度化、日常化，那么即使未来枪声暂歇，两国社会也可能已习惯在敌意中生活。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 1;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; line-height: 2em;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, PingFang SC, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: normal;">那样的和平，将只是没有炮火的对峙，而不是关系真正的修复。</span></span></p><p style="display: none;"> </p> <!----></div> 为了拳击权利，，， 两败俱伤、泰国旅游贸易都受影响、战争没有赢家！ 和平共处 美国呀美国，一直都在刷存在感没有硝烟的战争很恐怖 一切归功于 能用武力解决的，最好别哔哔。反正都活的太安逸了 和平发展 没有防控武器，人家泰国在边境线上来回逛花园！
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